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This search for a Dolphins coach doesn’t always make sense to those of us on the outside that don’t know the “plan” general manager Jeff Ireland spoke of when the process kicked off last week.

The team has interviewed the best-known candidate in Jeff Fisher but isn’t touching others such as Brian Billick or Marty Schottenheimer. The Dolphins clearly value experience but also have talked to a pair of coaches in Dave Toub and Joe Philbin who have never been a head coach at any level.

Yes, it can seem confusing on the outside peeking into the minds of Ireland and owner Stephen Ross, the men most responsible for running this search.

But allow me for the next few paragraphs to clear away some of that confusion. No, I don’t pretend to know the Dolphins’ plan. Ireland and Ross have done their best to seal the organization as tightly as a can of tuna and have mostly been successful.

But rays of light occasionally escape from behind Miami’s iron curtain. This is what the fleeting beams reveal:

Fisher is the team’s top candidate and no one will be hired until he decides between Miami and St. Louis — a decision that might come as early as Monday.

The Dolphins, you must understand, would never admit Fisher is the guy they want because if they don’t land him, they don’t want anyone tagging the eventual hire as the secondary choice.

For the Dolphins, that’s logical.

Fisher is the leading choice simply because he is the safest bet. He was an NFL head coach for 17 years before eccentric Tennessee owner Bud Adams fired him in 2010. He compiled a 142-120 record (.542 winning percentage) with the Titans and is known and respected in venues throughout the league.

He has a fine reputation. He has experience. He has credibility.

Fisher knows how to be successful, and he’ll know it his first day on the job rather than having to learn by trial and error. So he’s the guy.

For the Dolphins, that’s logical.

The club has fielded calls on Schottenheimer but was only lukewarm in part because he feuded with a previous general manager, has a reputation for failing in the postseason and he’s 68 years old.

The club is aware of former coaches Mike Mularkey and Jim Haslett but neither was successful in their brief head coaching stints, either. So there’s no way to know if either is the next Bill Belichick or if the next to join the legions of coaches who failed in the second coaching opportunity as well as their first.

As for Billick, he has no shot of ever becoming Miami’s coach.

None.

That might seem strange to anyone glancing at Billick’s résumé because it’s impressive:

He coached the Ravens for nine years and won a Super Bowl in 2000-01. He put together a coaching staff that was a breeding ground for future head coaches such as Rex Ryan, Marvin Lewis, Mike Nolan, Mike Smith and Jack Del Rio.

But Billick’s major problem has to do with the fact he unwittingly got off on very bad terms with Ross and this, like it or not, is Ross’s coach search.

Billick was not at his coaching best in 2007, when his team was 5-11, and that caught Ross’ attention because he was at the time negotiating to buy the Dolphins from Wayne Huizenga.

Billick had the misfortune of coaching the only team to lose to the otherwise-winless Dolphins. That loss came after Billick ordered a field goal with eight seconds left in regulation to send the game into overtime. He did this rather than try a fourth-and-goal play from the one-foot line that might have delivered Baltimore a victory after a long and dramatic last-minute drive.

The Ravens, decimated in the secondary, lost in overtime on a 64-yard pass to Greg Camarillo.

The next day, true story, Huizenga and Ross spoke and the seller informed the buyer that the team’s price had just gone up $40 million because, well, the victory made the Dolphins more valuable.

Ross balked and broke off negotiations until the sides returned to the bargaining table months later.

So Billick failed in using conservative strategy on the road against a winless team in a game to which his prospective future employer was paying close attention. And that questionable strategy cost Ross millions.

Amazingly, Billick met with Ross the following year while doing research for a book he was writing. Before shaking Billick’s hand, Ross told him, “You owe me $40 million!”

The meeting went downhill from there.

Billick, apparently unaware Ross was only half-kidding, used the quote as the title for his book’s first chapter. Billick recently told The Miami Herald he thinks Ross to be “very impressive” based on that 2008 meeting.

Ross, judging the failed strategy, the poor meeting and other data, is said to not share the sentiment. That’s why Billick isn’t getting the Dolphins’ job.

And for the Dolphins, that’s logical.

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